Experts enhancing risk assessment
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A new research project aims to improve climate change water-risk assessments
Researchers from the University of Adelaide, along with colleagues from the University of Melbourne, Australian National University, and One Basin CRC, are developing a new approach to understand issues posed by climate change on water resources.
The initiative, supported by more than $3 million in Australian Government funding, could enhance the decision-making capacity of water management organisations, growers, and communities.
A pilot project, which will take place over three years, will create a prototype model for assessing climate risks specific to the Murray-Darling Basin.
The model is intended to prioritise stakeholder engagement and improve the way climate-related risks are managed.
“We know from research that the Murray-Darling Basin is headed for a drier future, with rainfall projected to decrease, particularly in the south and in winter, which means more time in drought and decreased soil moisture,” says project lead Professor Holger Maier from the University of Adelaide.
He says that while substantial data on climate change exists, a gap remains between available information and actions to mitigate risks, resulting in an “ad hoc approach to climate adaptation”.
“We hope to help people overcome the current state of decision-making paralysis that can get in the way of much-needed climate adaptation action,” Professor Maier said.
Over the course of the three-year period, the project will focus on developing a pilot model and testing it in selected case-study regions across the Basin.
Researchers will work with stakeholders to refine the model based on feedback and results from the trials.
In the long term, the project is expected to lay the groundwork for a nine-year program, ultimately aiming for broader implementation of sustainable water management practices across the region.
“The measure of the success of this project will be - in the short term - the confidence that the region has to move forward with decision making under future uncertainty, and - in the longer term - the vibrancy and resilience of the region,” Professor Maier said.
The approach is anticipated to yield blueprints for climate adaptation, identify common barriers and accelerators to the model’s adoption, and provide guidelines for its broader application.
The collaborative effort includes various regional partners such as the Murray-Darling Basin Authority, North East Catchment Management Authority, Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority, and the Murraylands and Riverland Landscape Board.