Research undertaken for Victoria’s Country Fire Authority (CFA) suggests the frequency of high-risk bushfire days could triple in some parts of Victoria in coming decades.

The research modelled changes in fire danger under different climate change scenarios.

Sarah Harris, the CFA’s manager of research and development says she was “not surprised” by the findings, as it is inline with previous research. 

“What's exciting about this research is having this data set now to understand the implications of these changes for fire agencies and communities,” Dr Harris said.

The research, published in the International Journal of Wildland Fire, indicates a 10 to 20 per cent increase in extreme Forest Fire Danger Index, with the greatest change projected in the north-west region.

However, the greatest relative change in the number of ‘Very High’ days per year will be in central and eastern parts of the state where there is a projected doubling and tripling, respectively in the number of ‘Very High’ days.  

Increased temperature, caused by human-induced climate change, will be the main driver of heightened fire danger, Dr Harris said. 

“Changes in temperature, humidity and rainfall during spring and early summer mean the fire season will continue to start earlier and run longer. As a flow-on effect, springtime opportunities for prescribed burning could reduce,” she said.

CFA Chief Officer Jason Heffernan said he was proud of CFA’s robust research program, which he said brought further understanding of the impacts of climate change in the context of firefighting.

“As firefighters, we see the effects of these longer and more severe fire seasons and it’s important that we turn our minds towards what firefighting looks like in the not-too-distant future,” he said.

“CFA is undertaking work to identify challenges brought on by climate change and increased fire risk, and ways to solve them through adaptation and mitigation.

“CFA also proudly works to reduce our own greenhouse emissions, through initiatives such as increasing our use of rooftop solar and the number of hybrid vehicles in the fleet.”