Growers fear anti-global push
Some key non-mining industries are concerned about the rise of protectionism.
The gross value of Australia’s farming industries – led by wheat, beef, dairy and wool - will hit a record $63.8 billion this financial year.
“There's a lot of talk about this being the golden era for agriculture,” Fiona Simson, president of the National Farmers Federation, has told reporters.
“But also commodities such as cherries and also nuts have been huge winners this year. In the last few years, we've consistently seen the exports of nuts growing. Products such as almonds and macadamias account for about a billion in exports.”
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resources Economics and Sciences predicts the horticultural exports will hit a gross value of $10 billion by 2021, up from $9.3 billion this financial year.
But this figure is held back by the highly perishable produce being stuck onshore, due to restrictions blocking it from being exported.
These goods often only make it overseas if both countries have agreed export protocols.
“A protocol is a country's requirement for how they want our fruit and how they want it to land on their shores,” says Joe Tullio, chair of the Australian Horticultural Exporters Association.
Trade barriers for manufactured goods are now fairly rare, but agriculture still has bounds.
“The more markets we can command, the more competition there is for our product, the higher price that we as farmers can command, which is a great thing for Australian farmers. We need to do better at selling that message,” Ms Simson said.
The Federal Government has tried to open markets up for the agriculture sector, but global attitudes to big trade deals are turning dark.
The growing chorus of free trade advocates are stirring concerns about global trade.
“Aussie farmers produce a great product, and there's a huge and growing demand for it in Asia, full stop,” says Michael Every, head of financial markets, Asia Pacific at Rabobank.
“But at the moment the tectonic plates of global trade look like they are about to shift and when they do, no-one is quite sure what they'll look like afterwards.”
US President Donald Trump's aversion to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) means Australia's agricultural exporters are looking for a Chinese-led multilateral deal to replace it.
“For the grain industry, the TPP presented some opportunity, but it wasn't the real game. The real game for the past few years has been the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership — or RCEP,” said David McKeon, general manager of policy at GrainGrowers.