Renewable energy sources are projected to account for about half of Australia’s electricity generation by 2049-50, according to the Australian energy projections to 2049-50, released by the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE).

The report contains the latest long-term projections for Australia’s energy consumption, production and trade to 2049-50.

“The findings in this report suggest that Australia’s energy future will be markedly different to its current structure. Changes in energy use by fuel and by sector will alter consumption patterns, while a substitution away from carbon-intensive fuels to renewable energy sources will support a cleaner energy future,” said Professor Grafton, Executive Director and Chief Economist at BREE.

Australia’s primary energy consumption is projected to grow by 21 per cent to 7389 petajoules in 2049-50. This moderate growth reflects a long-term fall in energy intensity, accelerated by drivers such as the greater role of renewable technologies, which use less energy to generate electricity than fossil fuels, and carbon pricing.

Electricity generation is projected to grow by 49 per cent to 377 terawatt hours in 2049-50. Coal’s share (including with carbon capture and storage) of total generation is projected to fall to 13 per cent in 2049-50, while gas (including with and without carbon capture and storage, and integrated solar-gas technologies) rises to 36 per cent.

More than half of Australia’s electricity is projected to be generated by renewable technologies in 2049-50. Wind will be the largest source of renewable generation (21 per cent of total generation), while solar is projected to be the second largest (16 per cent) and is the fastest growing over the projection period.

The strong growth in renewable electricity generation is a result of the increased competitiveness of renewable technologies under carbon pricing, as well as expected advances in technologies and a decline in their capital costs.

Australian energy production (excluding uranium) is projected to grow by 69 per cent to reach 27 803 petajoules in 2049-50. Coal and gas account for 96 per cent of production in 2049-50, and an increasing proportion of production is expected to be exported.

The Australian energy projections to 2049-50 report is available at www.bree.gov.au.